The Russian Federation seizes on the downfall of Il-76 to sow discontent in Ukraine

The fall of Il-76 in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation. Photo from social networks

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that the Il-76 disaster is being seized upon in the Russian information space in order to sow internal discontent in Ukraine and undermine the West's desire to continue military support for Ukraine.

This is stated in the ISW report.

Currently, the Institute does not assess the circumstances of the Il-76 crash and cannot independently verify Russian or Ukrainian statements regarding the incident. However, he notes that «Russian actors in the information space are seizing on the Il-76 disaster to sow internal discontent in Ukraine and undermine the will of the West to continue military support for Ukraine.»

In particular, Andrii Kartapolov, head of the Russian State Duma defense committee, stated that Ukraine deliberately shot down the Il-76, knowing that there were Ukrainian prisoners of war in it, and called for an indefinite suspension of the exchange of prisoners of war. And the deputy head of the Russian Security Council, Dmytro Medvedev, accused the Ukrainian «internal political struggle» of contributing to the catastrophe. Russian Foreign Minister Serhii Lavrov, who is currently in New York at a meeting of the UN Security Council (UNSC), called for an urgent convening of the UNSC to consider the disaster and accused Ukraine of terrorism.

«Such Russian accusations are in part intended to sow discontent in Ukraine and create distrust of the Ukrainian government, which is consistent with several other Russian information efforts aimed at weakening Ukraine domestically. The exchange of prisoners of war is a sensitive topic in both Russia and Ukraine, and rhetorical references to prisoners of war provoke a predictably emotional reaction. In addition, Russian officials have made unsubstantiated claims that Ukraine hit the IL-76 with missile systems provided by the US or Germany, probably in an attempt to prevent Ukraine's Western partners from providing Ukraine with critical air defense systems necessary for the further defense of Ukraine,» ISW noted..

The fall of IL-76

The Il-76 military plane crashed in the morning of January 24 in the Belgorod region. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, he was transporting Ukrainian prisoners. At the same time, information appeared in the Ukrainian mass media that there were S-300 anti-aircraft missiles on board.

The governor of the region, Viacheslav Hladkov, confirmed that there was an extraordinary event in the Korochansky district and he is going to the scene of the incident.

Later, the State Security Service confirmed that the exchange of prisoners between the Russian Federation and Ukraine was to take place on January 24.

At the same time, the journalists of the «Scheme» project announced that they had established the names of the crew members of the Russian Il-76 plane that crashed in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation on January 24. The death of at least three of them was confirmed by their relatives.

According to journalists, the crew belonged to the 117th military transport aviation regiment stationed in Orenburg. «Schemes» claim to have received the names of six people who were supposed to accompany this flight, verified their positions and affiliation with military aviation.

The Russian Federation called an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council due to the crash of the Il-76 plane in the Belgorod region.

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in turn, said that Ukraine will insist on an international investigation of the situation surrounding the downing of the Russian Il-76 plane.