In Ochakiv, mortality is four times higher than birth rate

The building of the Ochakiv city bus station damaged by shelling, photo by NikVesti

In the Ochakiv municipal community, the death rate has been 3-4 times higher than the birth rate in recent years.

These figures are given in the draft Community Staffing Programme for 2026–2028.

According to the document, the demographic situation has deteriorated significantly since the start of the full-scale war. According to estimates by the Ministry of Social Policy, Ukraine has lost about 40% of its human resources.

It is also noted that official statistics on the Ochakiv community are limited due to the fact that the city is included in the list of territories of active hostilities. At the same time, estimated indicators show a steady trend of population decline.

Over the past five years, the number of residents, excluding migration, has decreased by approximately 8% and stands at 13,070 as of early 2025. The actual number of residents is significantly lower — about 8,200.

«The actual population is significantly smaller — about 8,200 people (according to the register of humanitarian aid recipients),» the document says.

The forecast for the coming years is also disappointing. According to the optimistic scenario, in 2028, about 12,118 people will live in the community, and according to the pessimistic scenario, only 7,460.

«At the beginning of 2022, the working-age population in the Ochakiv community accounted for only 43% of its total population, and the average number of employees continues to decline and currently does not exceed 1,000 people,» the programme states.

According to the Ochakiv City Council, such demographic dynamics are already leading to an acute shortage of personnel and creating risks for the functioning of the local economy and the community's life support system.

As of October 2025, approximately 7,500 people lived in Ochakiv. This is half of the pre-war population.

Due to shelling, 70% of buildings in the city have been destroyed or damaged: private houses, high-rise buildings and infrastructure facilities.

See also the article by NikVesti «The enemy is 3.5 km away. How does the frontline town of Ochakiv live?»