No truce reached, but Ukraine «not sold»: results of the Alaska summit

The US and Russian presidents did not reach an agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine, but, according to Donald Trump, progress can be made in this direction. It is possible that another summit could take place soon and President Zelenskyy could join it.

«Radio Liberty» analysed the results of the summit in Alaska, which took place on 15 August.

What was the main point of the talks?

The main thing was supposed to be — at least there were such expectations — an agreement on a truce in Ukraine.

As Donald Trump wrote on his social media account, «STAKES ARE HIGH», referring to the truce as the first significant step towards ending the war and bringing peace to Ukraine, where the war has been going on for three and a half years. And on the plane from Washington to Anchorage, Trump spoke of his hope that a ceasefire agreement would be reached.

But no truce has been reached.

«There is no deal until there is a deal», President Trump said at a joint press conference with Putin, where the media did not ask questions.

Trump considered a ceasefire to be the main goal, although he suggested that it might not be achieved, giving 25 per cent for a pessimistic scenario.

«We agreed on many points. There are only a few that remain. Some of them are not that important. «One is probably the most important, but we have a good chance to agree on it», Trump said, referring to the most important» — a ceasefire, a cessation of hostilities.

 

Before Alaska, it was assumed that a temporary truce, if not an indefinite truce, could be reached — there were talks of 15 days and 30 days, among other things. It was also assumed that if not a complete ceasefire, then at least an air ceasefire could be achieved, and then both on land and at sea.

An air ceasefire could stop Russian missiles and drones from terrorising Ukrainian cities, and Russia, it was assumed, might be interested in this, as Ukraine has been seriously harassing Russia with drone strikes on Russian military targets and, more recently, with almost daily attacks on Russian oil refineries and oil storage facilities.

Yet neither a full nor even a limited ceasefire has been achieved.

But why not?

At the press conference (without questions from journalists), it was clear that Putin was reading his speech, while Trump spoke live, without a piece of paper.

This may be a sign that the Russian leader had everything written in advance and there was a provision — already traditional in the Russian position — about the need to «eliminate the root causes of the conflict» in Ukraine.

By these «root causes», the Kremlin usually means not Ukraine's membership in NATO, not the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine, and not restrictions on the size of the Armed Forces, but also the protection of the Russian language in Ukraine, and even the removal of Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power was mentioned among the political demands.

«I have repeatedly said that for Russia, the events in Ukraine are associated with fundamental threats to our national security. Moreover, we have always considered and consider the Ukrainian people to be a fraternal people, no matter how strange it may sound in today's environment. We have the same roots and everything that is happening is a tragedy. Therefore, our country is sincerely interested in putting an end to this», Putin said.

Listening to Putin, Trump was a bit sceptical — especially when Putin talked a lot about the USSR's cooperation with the US during World War II or Russia's long-standing ties with Alaska, of which Alaska was a part from 1799-1867 until the Americans bought it.

Putin has even said that if Trump had been president, the conflict in Ukraine would not have happened. Trump, for his part, has called Putin by his first name, Vladimir, a couple of times.

«Nothing good happened, but nothing bad happened either. The best did not happen, but the worst did not happen either. Ukraine was not sold», said former US Ambassador to Kyiv William Taylor. «There was no Munich, and there was no Yalta, when Ukraine would have been sold».

By «Munich» we mean 1938 and the attempts to appease Hitler by the then leaders of France and Britain, which did not deter the Reich's appetite for war after the annexation of parts of Czechoslovakia. And «Yalta» refers to the division of Europe into spheres of influence at the 1945 Yalta Conference by the leaders of the USSR, the US and Britain.

Will there be sanctions?

President Trump has admitted the possibility of additional sanctions against Russia if it does not agree to a ceasefire.

But given the atmosphere of Trump's relationship with Putin and the prospect of another meeting, possibly soon, it is unlikely that there will be additional US sanctions now — especially if there is an opportunity for another summit.

«Mr Trump has not given up on Ukraine. But on the plane on the way to the talks, he talked about a ceasefire, and if that is not achieved, is he ready to impose severe sanctions now?», says Steven Pifer, the former US ambassador to Kyiv.

What Trump has already done is impose a 25 per cent duty on India for buying Russian oil, and the same was expected of him with regard to China. These are so-called «secondary sanctions».

But in an interview with Fox News after his talks with Putin, Trump said that «given what happened today, I don't think I have to think about a possible increase in tariffs on China». But Trump also added that he might take a look at the issue «in two or three weeks».

«I do not believe that Trump will impose any additional sanctions. He will say that we need to continue talking to the Russians, we need to look for solutions. I do not feel that he has a desire to worsen relations with Russia», Ukrainian diplomat Oleksii Matsuka told Radio Liberty.

But this does not mean that there cannot be new sanctions from Europe. At the end of August, EU foreign ministers are due to discuss the 19th package of sanctions in Denmark, which holds the EU presidency.

It is unclear whether the EU will do so and whether Washington will now ask not to do so, given the consequences of Alaska.

What about security guarantees?

One point from Putin's speech after the talks is being actively commented on. He said that he understood that Ukraine's security should also be taken into account. He did not explain what he meant by this, but it is Russia, under his leadership, that is depriving Ukraine and Ukrainians of security by waging military aggression and shelling civilians and infrastructure.

Interestingly, shortly after taking office, President Trump was sceptical about American security guarantees for Ukraine, but before the Alaska talks he said that the United States — together with the Europeans — could provide some security guarantees to Ukraine, but that this did not mean Ukraine's membership in NATO.

As for European security guarantees, this includes arms supplies, financial support, and even the idea of a possible deployment of a European peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine after the ceasefire.

What were some interesting moments?

Both the meeting room and the press conference room had Pursuing Peace inscriptions on the wall and in the background, which can be translated as «moving towards peace». Commentators in the international media suggested that this could mean confidence that peace would be achieved, but that it would not be achieved quickly.

The meeting lasted up to about three hours, although a Kremlin spokesman suggested that the talks could last six hours. There was also no long one-on-one meeting, but rather 3-on-3 talks.

Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Vitkoff were on the American side, and President Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Putin's foreign policy adviser Yurii Ushakov were on the Russian side.

But after appearing before journalists, Trump and Putin also had a one-on-one conversation.

So, now they are waiting for the next summit — perhaps the leaders of the US, Ukraine and Russia, and maybe some Europeans will join.

Putin even suggested Moscow as a place for such a summit, but Trump said that he would be criticised for this, but noted that the proposal was interesting.

Many people say that Putin allegedly won a diplomatic victory in Alaska because he came out of international isolation, because the red carpet was rolled out for him in the United States, the most powerful democracy in the world, and he was received in front of the whole world.

This is an achievement in itself, and one that is rejected by many in Ukraine and abroad, as Putin is considered a war criminal in Ukraine and the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for him.

Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs, told Radio Liberty: «Unfortunately, Putin has won in the media. Because, unfortunately, this summit is already a certain diplomatic victory for him. And, unfortunately, this happened, and now we need to minimise the negative consequences that follow from this».

Earlier, Donald Trump assured European leaders that during his meeting with Vladimir Putin on 15 August, he would not discuss the issue of Ukrainian territories and would insist on an unconditional ceasefire.